Junk Science Week: No climate death in Venice

[Editor: This is published for educational purposes only under the fair use clause that science classes and the general public can be exposed to the truth about the junk in science.] 

Terence Corcoran  Jun 15, 2011 – 9:16 PM ET | Last Updated: Jun 15, 2011 9:32 PM ET

Reuters

St. Mark’s Square in Venice has been ­subject to periodic flooding for years.

By Terence Corcoran

We interrupt our scheduled Junk Science Week material to bring you news from the front line of the global climate scare.

First, we take you to Venice, Italy. The news is that Venice will not disappear, contrary to scaremongering from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Back in 2007, on the release of an IPCC report, United Nations climatologist Osvaldo Canziani warned that rising sea levels caused by global warming would create an environmental catastrophe at one of the world’s greatest artistic and architectural treasures.

“The water of the lagoon will continue to rise. If things carry on like this, Venice is destined to disappear,” said Mr. Canziani, then deputy head of the IPCC, an organization expert in generating headlines.

But now, following a pattern of science backtracking over IPCC alarmist claims about the threat of global warming, a new science report says Venice is safe. In fact, it will be more secure against water surges than it is today.

In a paper published in the journal Climate Change, Alberto Troccoli, of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Australia, and scientists in the U.K. and Italy say that their global climate simulations suggest “a decrease in extreme tides” as sea levels rise. Storm surges will also be fewer in the Northern Adriatic where Venice is situated. The conclusion is that by the end of the 21st century “tidal flooding events might not be exacerbated … with potentially beneficial consequences for the conservation of the city.”

Coral islands may grow as sea rises, new study finds

In another development, fears that small islands in the Pacific Ocean might also ­disappear may be unfounded.

In the Small Islands section of its 2007 report on climate-change impacts, the IPCC had warned that rising temperatures and sea levels would pose “great challenges and high risk, especially to low-lying islands that might not be able to adapt.” Island coasts would be at “great risk,” and “anticipated land loss” would “threaten the sustainability of island agriculture and food security.”

But a new study by scientists in New Zealand and Fiji published in the Global and Planetary Change journal found that Pacific islands have been growing, rather than disappearing. Paul Kench, of the University of Auckland, said his study found that because low-lying Pacific islands are made of coral debris, “you have continual growth.” In an interview with New Scientist magazine, Mr. Kench said: “It has been thought that as the sea level goes up, islands will sit there and drown. But they won’t. The sea level will go up and the island will start responding.”

New Scientist also quotes Barry Brook, a climate scientists at the University of Adelaide in Australia who is a supporter of Campaign 350, which aims to reduce the volume of carbon in the atmosphere to 350 parts per million, down from about 400 currently. The objective is to impose tough carbon controls around the world in part to save low-lying islands, including the Maldives, from being swamped.

Mr. Brooks told New Scientist that while he was initially surprised by the new study’s findings, he agrees with the analysis. “It does suggest that islands have been able to adapt to sea-level rises.”

Campaign 350 was founded by American environmentalist and author Bill McKibben. But there are no signs that Campaign 350 is backing down on its extreme targets, despite this and other evidence that many of the most alarmist IPCC warnings have proven to be unfounded.

In summary, add disappearing Venice and drowning Pacific islands to scores of other IPCC myths about the impact of climate change.

Financial Post
For more reports and the latest news on climate science, politics and economics, visit the website of the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

Posted in: FP Comment  Tags: Climate Change, Flooding, Junk Science Week 2011, Pacific Islands, Sea Level Rise, Venice